
Before we jump into our weekend preview and look at (I) the best match (II) the most fantasy footie friendly encounter (III) a prediction of Premier League stud and dud performers and (IV) a weekly best eleven, I want to make a quick mathematical point about this dreaded fantasy footie
gameweek.
Most of you are very knowledgeable fantasy Premier League managers, so you don't need me to preach to you the importance of limiting the number of - 4 point hits you take during the course of a fantasy season. They add up.
But this week, with fantasy lineups in shambles (due to overdependence on Manchester United players, suspensions to "highly owned" players like Jose Bosingwa and injuries to "highly owned" players like Mikel Arteta) a few transfers may make the difference between a brilliant stretch run and a poor finish.
Take for example a "typical" top scoring fantasy team that is missing 3 Manchester United outfield players, Jose Bosingwa, John Paintsil, and Mikel Arteta. That's six men out. If you make one "free" transfer - you play with 9 players, leaving two empty slots. If you make 3 transfers, you take a - 8 hit, but mathematically, it's more advantageous than taking a - 8 hit during a 'typical' gameweek during the season, when you still have 2 pt substitutes available.
So, the point is this: during a 'typical' week (when you have 2 pt substitutes available on the bench), a - 4 hit is rarely a good move - since the new acquisition needs to score 6 points (versus the 2 pt sub) just to break even. But in this atypical gameweek (the gameweek from hell) it's actually less of a financial burden to take a - 8 point hit - since you have zero 2 pt. subs available - the hit is actually just - 2 per player you bring in without a substitute (not - 4). And minus 2 really isn't that bad. Sorry for being so abstract/long winded. But it makes sense.
If you can re-tool the team now with a - 4, - 8, or even - 12, and put out a healthy 11 along with setting up your team for the stretch run, then do it. Catch your mini-league leaders. Or if you are leading, put some room between yourself and your closest challenger. Be bold. Pull the itchy trigger finger. The world's economy is in tatters, so at least have yourself a fantasy financial spending spree. It feels good. Just do it. Now to the weekend preview...
I. Manchester City @ West Ham: Two teams fighting for a spot in the UEFA Cup next season who have offered some brilliant fantasy acquisitions this season (C. Cole and C. Bellamy to name two) square off at Upton Park. City's form has been patchy for much of the season, though Mark Hughes' men looked strong in claiming an away point at Liverpool last weekend.
West Ham's midfield boasts some beautiful bargains: Scott Parker (5M), Mark Noble (5.2M), and Jack Collison (4.5M) are cheap and in-form - and the Hammers will live or die in the middle of the pitch through their three workmanlike playmakers.
City's defensive midfielders
Kompany (5.4M, classified as a defender) and De
Jong (5.5M) will be tasked with stopping West Ham's dirt-cheap trio from providing the service for Carlton 'Can't Control' Cole (6.2M) up front. As always,
City will be led by Ireland - Bellamy - Robinho.
While I expect plenty of chances in this one, this game features two solid goalkeepers in Shay Given and Robert Green, and in the end, I expect a tight affair.
Prediction: 1 - 1 draw
Fulham have failed to win any of their 13 games away from Craven Cottage. Trust in your Arsenal studs - all across the pitch - from Gallas and Toure at the back - to Nasri in the midfield - to RvP up front. Gunners fans, and fantasy footie investors, should finally be rewarded. Who knows, maybe the baby-faced Arshavin will get in on the act too. Buy Arsenal.
Prediction: Arsenal 3 - 0
III. Studs and Duds: The studs discussion this week really centers around the lack of studs for the Captain's Armband - with Ronaldo, Arteta, Vidic, and Berbatov all out this week. So, we need to focus on other Top 4 contenders - and look to Chelsea, Liverpool, Aston Villa, and Arsenal for some love.
RvP is a stud selection for the Captain's Armband, though Gerrard and Torres both have injury concerns for Liverpool and should probably not be given the armband. Chelsea have a host of options - with Lampard the best, closely followed by Drogba and Anelka. Drogba looked magnificent against Juventus and has his confidence back. He could be a superb stud differentiator down the stretch - though 10.3M is a lot to spend on a 30-year old striker with only 1 Premier League goal this season. Finally, Aston Villa's studs were rested in the UEFA Cup this week, and Young, Barry, and Agbonlahor will look to dominate Stoke at home. Villa have failed to score in their last two Premier League home games (0-1 vs. Chelsea and 0-0 vs. Wigan) but should find it much easier against relegation battlers Stoke. I expect a 2-0 win for Villa.
Duds this week include Wigan's popular selections Kirkland, Figueroa, Valencia, and Zaki - at Stamford Bridge, as well as Fulham's high-flying attackers Murphy, Dempsey, and Johnson. Top fantasy managers have invested heavily in these two surprise Premier League outfits - but both will struggle to produce fantasy points on the road this week.
Everton players straddle the stud/dud fence despite playing the worst team in the league - West Brom. Investment in Baines, Jagielka, Cahill, Jo and Lescott is high (and perhaps for the really risky - worthy of the captain's armband) but WBA have scored 4 goals in their last three games and Scott Carson is a better 'keeper than you think. I see an Everton win, but
it could be a boring 2-1 victory without the brilliance that is Mikel Arteta.
IV. EPL Gameweek 27 Best Eleven:
GK: Almunia
D: A. Cole - L. Baines - Arbeloa
M: Lampard - Kuyt - M. Taylor - S. Nasri - G. Barry
F: Van Persie - Drogba