Thursday, November 5, 2009

Premier League Gameweek 12 Fantasy Preview

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Let's get right to our favorite column of the week - the Premier League preview.

I. Manchester United @ Chelsea: The biggest match of the Premier League thus far this season sees Didier Drogba and Wayne Rooney go head-to-head in Sunday's meeting at the top of the table. The two strikers are in devastating form, the unstoppable Drogba and the new father Rooney - which one will come out on top?

Both managers opted to make six changes for their midweek Champions League games - to keep the squads fresh for the 1 v 2 showdown, and it showed - as Chelsea drew 2-2 with Atletico Madrid and United drew 3-3 with CSKA Moscow. But the "B" teams that qualified for the knockout stages in Europe won't be showcased at Stamford Bridge this weekend, and I expect an up-tempo instant classic.

As always, Drogba and Lampard are your main offensive protagonists for the home side, both are in-form and will face off against the Champions' defense which has stumbled as of late. Sure, they kept a clean sheet in their last Premier League game against Blackburn, which was nice, but Rio Ferdinand / Nemanja Vidic are struggling for both fitness and form entering this one and Northern Irish youngster Jonny Evans is set to feature.

Manchester United have not won at Stamford Bridge since 2002, and I don't expect them to win this weekend. All eyes will be on the team's shaky defense in recent weeks - and the game will hinge on the ability of an Evans, or even an O'Shea / Evra to play a bit narrower and crowd out Drogba in threatening areas of the pitch. If O'Shea / Evra continue bombing up and down the flanks from wide positions, and shirk their defensive "help" for Evans and the other central players (perhaps Darren Fletcher in the holding role) then it will be a long day for United.

If United come out like they did against Liverpool, I expect a heavy defeat. That said, they still have some creativity and brilliance in Rooney up front on the counter attack and I think Fletcher will play well (as he always does in the big games) to snuff out some of Drogba, Anelka, Lampard, Deco, and Ballack's chances... Exciting stuff.

Prediction: 2 - 1 Chelsea

II. Burnley @ Manchester City: It's been one or two steps forward and two steps back for Burnley this season, and I expect more of the same this weekend. The Clarets have been superb at home - keeping clean sheets and taking names in the process, but have yet to pick up any points on their travels. Woeful.

Manchester City are in somewhat of a rut as well, coming off a scoreless draw with Birmingham, but they remain in the Top-4, and they remain the only team in the Premier League with just one loss. Pretty impressive.

Star striker Emmanuel Adebayor is set to return from his ankle injury this weekend and he should go straight into the side replacing Paraguayan Roque Santa Cruz. I expect big things from Adebayor and Bellamy / Tevez in this one.

City goalkeeper Shay Given - coming off a superb clean sheet and penalty save against Birmingham, is in top form just in time for Ireland's crucial World Cup playoff with France next weekend, so fantasy managers can continue to bank on a City clean sheet this weekend as well.

I don't see much getting in the way of Mark Hughes' "supposed" Top 4 side, and they'll need to beat teams like Burnley if they want to end up in 4th at the end of their season, as they have stated is their goal.

Prediction: 3 - 0 Manchester City

III. Studs and Duds: The double gameweek was not kind to those managers who invested heavily in Aston Villa and West Ham players (with a few notable exceptions) and while we warned you that those teams wouldn't have an easy double week - injury was added to the insult when England international James Milner went down with a calf injury and his compatriot Carlton Cole followed a few days later with his own hamstring problem.

It's anyone's guess whether or not those two former "Studs" last week will turn into injured "Duds" this week, but both look very doubtful at this point. I will monitor the managers' press conferences tomorrow and update the injury news in the comments if I hear anything definitive either way. For now, I'd expect Milner to have a slightly better chance than Cole of featuring.

Luka Modric is still out for Tottenham - I expect him to return after the international break next gamewek - and the team hasn't really "clicked" without him. But the good news is that stud Jermain Defoe (8.6M) is back from his red card suspension and should instantly place himself back on fantasy managers' radar screens with a strong home performance against Sunderland in this one. Look for Defoe to lead the Tottenham attack and get on the scoresheet at home. Stud.

Sunderland players straddle the stud/dud fence this week with a tough trip to Tottenham, but former Tottenham players Darren Bent, Andy Reid, and Frazier Campbell should all start and will all be hoping to prove a point to their former team- "Look at us now." Tottenham rejects, but Sunderland studs...

Portsmouth are quietly stringing together some clean sheets and scoring some goals in the process, and while they may be classified as "duds" by most observers as they are visiting Sam Allardyce's defensive Blackburn at home, I'm going to disagree and say that Pompey players also straddle the stud/dud fence. An away win here against the swine flu ridden Rovers is certainly not too much to ask, and the likes of Dindane, Boateng, O'Hara, and even M. Wilson will garner plenty of interest going forward if Portsmouth do pull off the upset.

IV. Gameweek 12 Best Eleven:

GK: Given

D: Insua - Collins - K. Gibbs

M: Fabregas - A. Young - Kuyt - O'Hara - Wright-Phillips

F: Defoe - Adebayor

Subs: Sorensen - Z. Hines - M. Wilson - A. Dawson

9 comments:

Christopher said...

What do you think about the cheap defensive duo James Collins and Ricard Dunne? Do you think the loss up front in Milner will lead to a dismal weekend in the back for Aston Villa?
Similarly, does Stoke look set for a relaxing sunday afternoon with Hull City look pathetic especially with their highest point-producer, Geovanni, out on suspension?

Ibracadabra said...

I think you should always play your Stoke defensive studs - home and away, unless they're up against the Top 4 on the road - they have proven they can defend in the top flight and are incredibly organized.

That said, Hull deserved more from the Burnley game and I expect them to score at home. They need to go all out here if they want to save their manager's job. Jimmy Bullard will replace Geovanni and will be like for like - he'll take set pieces, and could contribute. I think this one has 1-1 written all over it but who knows.

As for Aston Villa, Bolton are playing attacking football this year under Megson, but still looked pretty toothless against Chelsea (albeit w/ 10 men) last week. I'd play Villa defenders - they've been picking up some bonus points and even getting themselves on the end of set pieces over the past month, even though the double gameweek was not a very fun week for them... I think a 2-1 Villa or 2-0 Villa in that one could be a good result.

Anonymous said...

Hey - any mail on whether Ashley Cole or Glen Johnson will be starting?

Their absence has hurt me over the past 2 weeks, and I don't think I can justify holding onto this week if they are out injured.

Anonymous said...

Any news on the milner/c.cole injury?

Ibracadabra said...

Anonymous - Johnson is an extreme doubt - he didn't even travel with Liverpool for the CL but his silver lining is that it's a Monday night game so he could perhaps make a surprise return. Rafa may choose to keep him out of that one though and have him rest over the INTL break since Birmingham aren't that great offensively...

Ashley Cole should play vs United as he played in the CL vs Atletico Madrid this week, though he did look rusty and wasn't bursting forward.

No news on Milner / Cole, but I would venture to guess that Milner will be close to 50-50 after missing the mideweek game whereas Cole will be a significant doubt. I doubt both play, perhaps we will learn more tomorrow when O'Neill and Zola hold press conferences...

Anonymous said...

Hi, do you know if Joe Cole would play against Man Utd? I am tempted to replace him for Deco in my team as he cost me a lot of points not playing on game week 11.

Richard said...

Any thoughts on who you would go for as captain? I would be tempted to go for Fabgregas but Arsenal are less devastating on the road, whilst I would have thought going for a Chelsea or United player would be a risk as it could be a tight game. A difficult decision, I would welcome your thoughts!

Ibracadabra said...

Richard -

Fabregas has 4 straight games with 3 Bonus Points. He scored in the Champions League midweek.

He's in "Drogba"-like form for his career right now. The theory is, if it ain't broke, don't fix it.

That said - he rarely scores goals in 2 straight games in the league, so I think perhaps an assist and 1 or 2 BPs is more likely, for maybe a 7 pt week.

You could take a bigger risk and go with Drogba or RVP who are also in form, or even Adebayor or Defoe - neither of which are in form but both have nice home games...

I'd say Cesc and RVP have to be the front runners, and I've been personally switching the armband back and forth between them all week.

Ibracadabra said...

anonymous - no idea on Joe Cole. The key is to have a strong bench in case Cole or Deco don't play. As we've said before, the Chelsea midfield is a rotational minefield other than Lampard, so your guess is as good as mine.