When most American kids still thought a "sweeper" was what their moms did after dinner, I moved to the US from footie-crazy Israel and had to learn US soccer customs on the fly.
The most foreign: the concept of the American soccer mom. That frenzied, minivan driving, juice box (or Gatorade bottle) handing out late 30s to mid 40s superwoman who was a master of phone chains and carpool lists. I hope the Manchester United carpool has a spare seat this weekend - because we all know Cristiano Ronaldo needs a ride. And we need him in our fantasy squads.
So, in our traditionally lengthiest post of the week - let's take a look at the weekend's Premier League fixtures and examine (I) the best match (II) the most fantasy friendly fixture (III) a prediction of stud and dud performers in the greatest league on earth and (IV) a weekly 'best eleven' squad.
I. Chelsea @ Manchester United: Surprisingly, neither of these teams sit at the top of the Premier League and both will be looking for a result at Old Trafford on Sunday to stay hot on the heels of league leaders Liverpool.
With neither side in particulary fluid attacking form, I expect a low-scoring defensive affair despite the abundance of attacking talent (Ronaldo, Rooney, Lampard, Drogba, Berbatov) on the pitch. Chelsea manager Luiz Felipe Scolari could really use former fantasy footie bonus point machine and rock Michael Essien in the middle of the park but will have to settle for a combination of the much less physical Frank Lampard, Deco, and/or Michael Ballack.
Tactically, I expect Chelsea to deploy a 4-5-1 with Didier Drogba leading the line. Bad news for the thousands of fantasy managers still clinging to Nicolas Anelka, but just a gut feeling for this one. Drogba is more physical than Anelka - and better suited to deal with United's central defensive pairing of Rio Ferdinand and Nemanja Vidic.
Speaking of Ferdinand, the United skipper is still a question mark with a back injury, and reserve stud Jonny Evans (4.3M) could keep his place alongside Vidic in defense. United fans and Evans or Ferdinand fantasy owners should continue to monitor that situation - but more and more it looks like Ferdinand will be fit.
It seems like a cop out predicting a low scoring draw, but many of these Top 4 clashes often fail to produce attacking scorelines.
Prediction: 1- 1 draw
II. WBA @ Aston Villa: The worst team in the Premier League travels to Villa Park to take on a Champions League contender. Aston Villa were second best the whole match against Gillingham just a few days ago in the FA Cup, but somehow managed to get the 2-1 win. Winning ugly. A win is a win. And other sports cliches.
Ashley Young was disappointing in that match - diving for a soft penalty call, and falling to the floor all match in search of free kicks - a vintage 2006 Cristiano Ronaldo performance, really, but no one can deny the winger's abundance of talent. James Milner looked the best on the day for Villa, and classy keeper Brad Friedel put in his usual stellar performance.
West Brom are in form, having won 2-of-3, but both wins came at home. In 7 matches against Villa since the Premier League era began, West Brom have failed to win once. I expect the trend to continue as Villa will look to exploit the Baggies' back line through Young and Agbonlahor's pace.
Only a vintage performance from goalkeeper Scott Carson will save WBA this weekend. Villa are just too good.
Prediction: 3 - 0 Aston Villa
III. Studs & Duds: All Wigan and Manchester United starters are short term stud selections this week due to a double gameweek schedule. On Wigan's end - bargain goalkeeper Chris Kirkland is straddling the stud/dud fence as he may only be fit for the United match. If he misses the (easier) home fixture with Tottenham, owners will not be happy.
Almost always, buying up players for the double gameweek is a great short-term strategy - but this week fantasy managers could be left very disappointed. Wigan players have a decent fixture with Tottenham at home, but then a terrible fixture at Old Trafford. Manchester United have a terrible fixture at home to Chelsea, and the aforementioned home game with Wigan. I'd expect a "1.5x" gameweek rather than a true "double" gameweek. Wigan's best plays are the obvious Zaki and the less obvious blog favorite Ryan Taylor, with Antonio Valencia in midfield also a strong option. But please, don't go Wigan-crazy because the Latics face Manchester City, Liverpool, and Aston Villa after the double week.
Non double gameweek studs for this week include Arsenal's Johan Djourou, a 4.4M bargain at home to Bolton - and since Switzerland is the country of choice for most financial investments, you could do much worse than taking a punt on perhaps the country's cheapest asset.
Other bargain studs include Leon Osman (one week only, at home to Hull) and West Ham's blog favorites Carlton Cole and Craig Bellamy visiting an injury-riddled Newcastle side. Arsenal's Denilson should also get forward at home to Bolton.
Duds this week include popular fantasy pick Stephen Ireland (suspended) as well as injured Arsenal Frenchmen William Gallas and Mikael Silvestre. Also, Liverpool's Robbie Keane could find himself a benched dud if manager Rafa Benitez decides to go with injury-free Fernando Torres up front in a 4-5-1 instead of pairing Keane with Torres in a 4-4-2. Hull's Geovanni is still owned by 35% of fantasy managers - an incredible percentage - but has not scored a goal in seven matches. Itchy trigger fingers will come into play with the Brazilian if he does not produce at Everton - and thus, he too straddles the precarious stud/dud fence.
IV. EPL Gameweek 21 Best Eleven:
GK: Friedel
D: Djourou - Evra - R. Taylor
M: Gerrard - Ronaldo - A. Young - Arteta - Valencia
F: Rooney - Zaki
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10 comments:
my team is loaded with villa players so i hope your prediction coms through...but dont forget this is a derby game and that can always make it unpredictable
Anyway, fingers crossed for ronaldo t break from his duck this week...
Newpass-
good luck. hopefully ronaldo's wreck doesn't cloud his free kick or bonus point abilities...
Kirkland - Schwarzer owners? or even Reina/Cech - Schwarzer owners?
- with Kirkland possibly missing the Tot match and only featuring at Old Trafford, is it a better move to just start the home clean sheet man Schwarzer instead rather than risk just starting Kirkland at United?
(same with Cech visiting United or Reina at Stoke - should the Aussie actually take precedence over those more expensive players?)
I'm in a slight D/GK predicament with the likes of bargain guys like Schwarzer, Paintsil, and/or Mendy likely to play this weekend due to injury, matchup or suspension (Ireland)...
oiiiittt, i recently made drastic meaures to my team to house a.young, ronaldo, lampard and gerrard in the same team.. seems to be working even if my captain isnt producing >.> i was wondering if u could elaborate on ur previous article as to why this may not be encouraged and why having premium strikers is a must..? thankss
hi KillerWhale -
That was actually a guest post from our buddy Chris at TwoFootedTackle!
In my opinion though, only one "premium" striker (and I include mid priced options like Defoe and Agbonlahor in this category) is absolutely vital - because over the course of the season, you are guaranteed a good 13 to 18 goals and consistent returns, basically every other game.. I don't think you need 2 or 3 premium strikers to be a dominant force - but you need to choose your one wisely...
As for your high priced midfield strategy - it is an excellent one but has one MAJOR drawback, in my opinion - the weekly roulette that is the Captain's Armband -
With just A Young and Ronaldo or A Young and Lampard - you can firmly place the armband on Ronaldo or Lampard 90% of the time, and the other 10% (vs Top 4 teams) give it to A Young, etc.
When you own all 4 big guns (Gerrard, Lampard, CRon, A Young) you have a very difficult decision each week and are spending an awful lot of money on players who won't be captained (say you captain Lampard, then you have 12M - Gerrard NOT captained and 14M - Ronaldo - NOT captained - that's a tough pill to swallow) - the big midfield guns become less attractive when you can't double up on their points because then why not just drop down to Ireland or Arteta and get the 5 pts per week rather than keep Gerrard or Lampard not captained getting 6 pts per week.
The point of the midfield stud(s) is to double up on their 6 pts per week - to give you a solid 12 pts per week over the course of the year - if they are just giving you 6 pts per week each week because you are captaining other 'big studs' you are probably better off taking the price differential and updating your John Paintsil to a Patrice Evra or your Ricardo Fuller to a Jermain Defoe...
Then again - playing devil's advocate (last point I promise!) if you are 'correct' in placing the armband more than 50% of the time - that is you choose the top scorer of your big 4 midfield more than half the time - then it is probably worth it - and you should shoot me an email at nevercaptainnickybutt@gmail.com so I can place a few US Dollars on your picks of the weekend...
Will Jay Simpson start for West Brom?
re: Jay Simpson -
I doubt right away, but with the incredibly mediocre Roman Bednar, Luke Moore and Craig Beattie his only competition - surely he'll feature sooner rather than later...
For all the midtable private leaguers, this is now or never time to get back in the race for the money. Wondering what some of the strategies are out there for making up ground. Last year i found targetting the top couple of teams a good idea, it worked well for me anyway.
As for the leaders - what to do there? i've been in that position before too.
Looks like cancelled games are gonna wreak havoc with managers heavily invested in the affected teams. (Portsmouth, ManCity, Fulham, Blackburn so far.) Even including my bench I'm down to 10 active players already... at best.
Jay -
I started with Schwarzer and Paintsil at the back and both are off due to a frozen pitch.
Now I have Cech and Mendy coming in off the bench. Major bummer. A possible 9 pt swing there since Mendy has already conceded two to Everton and could finish with Zero Points while Cech won't get more than 3 pts at Old Trafford...
Any result but my predicted 1-1 pleases me at Old Trafford now. I have Cech + Bosingwa so wouldn't mind a Chelsea clean sheet and I'll still have Evra, Cron and Berbatov to hopefully put 3 or 4 past Wigan....
what a week...
In other news - Arteta continues his incredible form and his selection in the weekly picks is justified with a laser beam free kick...
Agbonlahor looked good for Villa & once again blog favorite Craig Bellamy continues his great winter time form.
Ibra -
Same here. Instead of Schwarzer & Paintsil, I'll get Turnbull and Barmby for a combined 4 points. Belhadj and Ireland make up the rest of my bench, so I'm all out. Hopefully everyone else will play.
But at least I'm off to a good start, with Cole, Bellamy and Arteta all scoring today (plus 6 bonus points for the latter two.) Everyone else playing tomorrow.
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