Friday, November 28, 2008

Fernando Torres: The New Dean Ashton: EPL Gameweek 15 Fantasy Preview


Let's jump right into our weekly preview. Here's the legend - I. Best "real" matchup II. Best fantasy friendly matchup III.  Studs & Duds and IV. A weekly best eleven

I. Manchester United @ Manchester City: The silver medal this week goes to Chelsea and Arsenal battling it out at Stamford Bridge, but the Manchester derby will never be the same after the royal family of Abu Dhabi decided to throw their hat (turban?) into the ring.

Cristiano Ronaldo (who will surely win the Ballon d'Or next week) has not had the best week: Portugal were humiliated in an international friendly in Brazil in which Ronaldo's trickery proved useless, United were first held scoreless at Aston Villa when Ronaldo could only provide a tiny threat, and in Champions League action - United failed to score (again) in a nil-nil draw in Spain. 

While his away form this season is mediocre (at best), it's tough to bet against Ronaldo in this one, as City are firing on all cylinders with their attack-minded approach, and thus United should see some clear cut chances on the counter-attack.

City's weakest links are their full-backs and Ronaldo (and Nani or Park, if selected) should cause some problems from wider positions. In other news, Berbatov may also return from injury.

On the City front, investment in Robinho and Ireland should remain high after Ireland scored in City's 2-0 UEFA Cup win over Schalke.  Frustrated Zaki owners could take a gamble on last season's fantasy darling Benjani (6.7MM) who looks like he has earned himself a spot in City's high flying attacking lineup alongside Robinho and Ireland.

Prediction: 2 - 1 Manchester United

II. Blackburn @ Portsmouth: With Torres injured (again), I've gone against the obvious choice (Liverpool at home to West Ham) and selected Portsmouth to come away with a home victory which could see some decent fantasy returns. 

Portsmouth controlled their match against AC Milan in the UEFA Cup yesterday (yes, you read that correctly), and were unlucky not to come away with a victory, as late goals from Ronaldinho and Inzaghi (who else!?) secured a 2-2 draw for the superb Italians.

Blackburn sit in 19th position and Paul Ince's side have lost three straight. 

Let's take a look at some of the fantasy implications and trends. Armand Traore - into the fantasy doghouse - out of the fantasy doghouse - who the hell knows - but the superb U-21 left winger was back in the starting lineup against Milan, as Pamarot dropped to the bench and Belhadj/Traore formed a good attacking duo on the left. 

But the best Portsmouth player on the night actually trotted up and down on the right. Glen Johnson. He's not cheap (5.5MM) but he's getting involved in the attack (two assists against the Italian giants), and he has the speed, power, and technique to provide Bosingwa-esque offensive returns at a fraction of the cost. It's funny, because the 24-year old was never really given a chance to mature at Chelsea in the right-back position, and now the two best right-backs in the league are surely the former Chelsea man (Johnson) and Chelsea's current flavor of the year - Bosingwa.

Defoe (calf) and Krancjar (ankle) may return to face Blackburn, but Johnson looks the best bet for "new" Portsmouth investment and the midfield general Diarra (ankle) is still out.

Warning: Portsmouth have struggled to keep clean sheets at home, but perhaps the Milan performance will lift their spirits...

Prediction: Portsmouth 2 - 0

III. Studs & Duds: Amr Zaki (dud) is out again but the 4.7MM Henri Camara (stud) looks set for a start against WBA at home, and could be a decent one week option for those Carlton Cole owners looking to save some cash or go with an in-form selection at home. Fernando Torres (dud) is out again but Liverpool should rely on Dirk Kuyt (stud) who has seen his value skyrocket from 8.5MM to 9.0MM since our Election Day debate less than a month ago.

On the defensive front, cheap Big-4 option Ivanovic (5.0MM) looks like a stud selection as long as Chelsea's backline is still injured. Another cheap Big-4 option could be the surprising John O'Shea, who at 5.3MM is a bargain if he can establish himself as Sir Alex's full time right back with Neville (too old and injured) Brown (injured) and Rafael (twelve years old) taking a back seat. O'Shea has started the last two league matches for the Red Devils, picking up clean sheets in both. Keep an eye on that studly development.

Straddling the stud/dud fence this week? Agger and Reina are riding high after three straight clean sheets, and managers are flocking to invest in Liverpool's defense but West Ham pack a more powerful punch than you think.  Bellamy and Cole looked competent on the road at Sunderland last week, and while Sunderland are surely not Liverpool, I would not be surprised in the least to see the Hammers threaten at Anfield. Liverpool have been poor at home this season, but have still kept the clean sheets. Don't even think of benching your Liverpool stars, but it's just a slight worry/random thought! (I think I just like Zola's smile and perhaps West Ham are really rubbish.)

IV. A gameweek 15 fantasy premier league best eleven for you to debate:

GK: Kirkland

D: Agger - G. Johnson - L. Young

M: Ronaldo - Kuyt - A. Young - Geovanni - Downing

F: Agbonlahor - K. Jones

Good luck to all this weekend. Let's see Henri Camara get on the scoresheet.

7 comments:

matt said...

ok. sorry this is long. but hear me out.

i currently have

reina
bosing,carra,agger,carvalho,taylor
ronaldo,geovanni,arteta,ashbee,barmby
cisse,agbonlahor,robinho.

next week. i will take the 4 point loss and go

agbonlahor -> camara
ashbee -> young

thus gaining a more reliable villa player, and a sub more likely to gain some good points.

the week after, I will change

cisse -> A. Johnson

if you look at fulham's matchups, Johnson is a great pick. Although im not sure on this one. Any suggestions? thanks. just to sum up my final team would be

reina
carvalho,carragher,bosingwa,agger,taylor
ronaldo,arteta,young,geovanni,barmby
johnson/cisse,camara,robinho.

any thoughts?

TD Ocho said...

I'm surprised that you're suggesting Benjani - I suppose he has been good in the UEFA and domestic cups, but he's been nonexistent in the league. He served me very well last season with Pompey, but once he was transferred in January he disappeared.

Anyway, I'm dumping Zaki this week as Defoe has declared himself fit to play. I'm thinking either Martins or Cisse, both have decent fixtures. Newcastle never fails to score and Cisse has been very threatening.

In other news, it looks like Alex will hopefully start this week.

Ibracadabra said...

Matt -

Looks like a good switch - though keep in mind Camara (and Wigan) have an off week in gameweek 18 and Camara will likely return to the bench when both Heskey and Zaki are fully fit...

Nevertheless, at 4.7MM he could be a great sub.

I actually think Agbonlahor and Young are a wash. They cost almost the same and are producing at almost the same rates. Agbonlahor will improve his goal tally this season while Young may actually take a step back after an incredible year last year... Both are top 10-15 players and superb options...

Fulham are strong this year, despite the name "Fulham" I really think this team has turned over a new leaf and is well organized, competent, and could push for a 9th to 12th place finish rather than the usual 16th or 17th...

TD Ocho -

Benjani, of course, is just mentioned as a "Gamble" - not a long term stud selection. This weekend will be Zaki's third straight weekend out with injury. He is dropping in value and there are clearly some other options... AJ is one of them, so are K Jones and Cisse, and so is Benjani..

I am post probably dropping Zaki for Defoe next week and running Defoe and Agbonlahor up top throughout the rest of the year...

good luck to all.

Ollycee said...

Matt -

I think the first two transfers are good moves. I also have my eye on Camara if Zaki is a long term absentee. Have you considered Kuyt instead of A. Young? He is really on form at the moment and with Torres injured he will play a much more attacking role. While im talking about Torres I have took a bit of a gamble this week and have swapped the doubtful Defoe (if he is fit I think he will start on the bench after last nights Pompey performance) for Robbie Keane. We all know he is class and has started to show a bit of fantasy promise after a slow start to the season. 8.5 is dirt cheap for Liverpool’s main striker and I think the fantasy floodgates may be about to open! What does everyone think?

Anyway Matt last point... I think Cisse or K. Jones may be better long term options up front instead of Johnson. They seem to be forming a decent partnership together that could score a lot of goals.

TD -

I hope Alex starts this week I have swapped him back in for Carvalho. Does anyone know whats up with Ricardo, I fear he may be dead, I cant find anything. He was meant to return last week?!

matt said...

Ibracadabra - thanks for your points, but I think I will still make the second switch, as I prefer having camara as a sub, instead of ashbee.

Ollycee - unfortunately, the most I can afford is 8.6, so kuyt is just out of my range. thakns though.

Silent Jay said...

FOUR right backs fighting it out for ManU now? I'm staying well clear of that one for now.

Also, don't forget that Bellamy is a former Liverpool outcast. What better time to finally get on the score sheet? (Of course, I have two Liverpool defenders, so I'm kinda hoping he won't...)

Ibracadabra said...

Camara with a goal...and 6 pts for both L Young and Downing in our weekly "best" 11 for a decent, but not great start to the weekend... let's hope for some Sunday fireworks!

Aston Villa - 3 straight clean sheets - could it be time to free up some funds by downgrading from the 6.3MM Cech/Reina choice to the American shot-stopper Friedel?!?!