A third of the Premier League season is in the books and fantasy managers are looking for an edge in their mini-leagues. An edge over your fellow managers. Bragging rights. A chance at the title next May. So you pick up Bent. Or you pick up Geovanni. Or Modric. Or Ireland. But you know what, your closest competitor (or league leader) also makes the same move. The value plays (6.0MM - 7.0MM) thus far this year are endless. High-priced options of the past (Fabregas, Gareth Barry, Gerrard) are just not worth it. So, what's a manager to do?
How about changing your formation from the preferred fantasy focus on attack and opening up your eyes to the beauty of an affordable Liverpool / Chelsea defense.
Liverpool have kept 8 clean sheets in 13 matches. Chelsea have kept 9 clean sheets in 13 matches. Both teams have been hit hard on the injury front (Carvalho, Skrtel) thus presenting huge short term scoring opportunties (Alex, Agger). But what about making these "Short-term" bets on the best defenses in the world a long-term strategy?
While in the real world there may not be any stocks worth betting the house on, in the beautiful world of fantasy footie, there are clearly two defenses to bet the house on: Liverpool and Chelsea.
You can still keep Ronaldo, and even Lampard too. But you can differentiate from your competitors by realizing profits on your mid-priced midfielders/attacks (Zaki? Ireland?) for the consistency of Top 4 defensive beauty.
Let's look at my team as an example. Trading in part of my personal team, "Lassana Diarra FC," sitting on 727 points, which is worth ~ 105M, for a Liverpool/Chelsea team, is easy, and this is what it could buy:
GK: Reina - Schwarzer
D: Carvalho - Ashley Cole - Evra - Agger - Paintsil
M: Ronaldo - Lampard - Arteta - Geovanni - Delap
F: Defoe - C. Cole - I. Miller
The three rotating substitutes would then be Paintsil, Delap, and Miller depending on opponent - all integral parts of their respected teams. (If Defoe - C. Cole isn't your thing you could go Bent/Zaki... but I'm trying to stray from the "Bandwagon" picks here...)
Just a thought... If you are having a "down" year (like I am), and want to make some bold moves to catch up to league leaders, a gamble on Chelsea/Liverpool clean sheets seems like it could pay off this season more than ever before...
Thoughts? Math? Opinions on the worth of Liverpool/Chelsea defensive options?
Let your voices be heard.
Footnote: Last season, Chelsea and Manchester United led the Premier League with 21 clean sheets each. This season, Chelsea are on pace for 27.
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11 comments:
trying to stray from "bandwagon" picks with ronaldo and lampard in midfield?
I completely agree with this approach. Despite assuming midweek injury risk, I made an impulsive switch this weekend before prices went up: Myhill and Arteta out, Reina and Geovanni in. This solidifies my defensive unit in a 3-4-3 with Reina, Agger, Bosingwa, and Evra holding it down.
Anon -- Lampard and CRon are beyond "bandwagon" status. If you don't have them, you simply won't win. Zaki, Ireland, Bent fall into this "bandwagon" category because 1) they've exceeded their expectations and/or are having repeated runs of form, and 2) are extremely cost efficient. People will have them when they get hot, dump 'em when their not. Ronaldo and Lamps, however, are indispensible in this game.
Great analysis Stepovers (and a great lineup).
No wonder you are the leader in our Mini-League...
-Ibra
Im also starting to come around to this way of thinking... Double Chelsea defenders and Arbeloa have served me proud over the last couple of weeks. Bit of early news for blog readers; it looks like Alex will be injured this weekend and Carvalho will be back in. I have swaped him early doors and picked him up for 6.4 million (not bad value I think).
While we are discussing this topic I just thought I would gauge everyone’s opinion... Im currently rotating Scwharzer and Turnbull in goal depending on fixtures this allows me to play Carvalho, Arbeloa and Bosingwa, along with Belhadj at the back. I just don’t think it is worth paying over 6 million for a premium keeper when you can buy a premium defender for around the same price who has a better chance of scoring, assisting, gaining bonus points etc. What does everyone think??
Olly -
I'm also making the Alex for Carvalho switch, just waiting a few more days for clear cut news on the situation. Arbeloa is also another option for Alex, but Carvalho, when healthy, is a bonus point machine.
As for the "premium keepers" - I think it's basically a wash with Cech or Reina and a 4.0 defender (Paintsil?) or Schwarzer and a 6.0 defender (Agger)...
In season's past mid priced options like James, Friedel, Almunia, and Tim Howard did the trick, but other than Chelsea and Liverpool, too many teams are inconsistent this year at the back and the Premier League is so much stronger from top to bottom, that it's just so tricky to count on clean sheets from ANY team...
Anyone else with thoughts?
PS - The BEST thing that could happen for fantasy managers (non Man U fans) would be a Van Der Sar injury (he is old and injury prone!) because then Foster or Kuzcak would be excellent value and must-haves.
Lampard is out for England's game Wednesday, hopefully this turns out to be no big deal.
Well, I rode my awesome midfield to 101 points this past weekend...but I do have Reina and Carragher in the back. Chelsea may have had a better overall defense, but Reina has won the golden gloves award for most clean sheets each season he's played in England. Goal scoring defenders are awesome (is Lescott finally going to wake up), but Reina is just too worth it to pass up in my opinion.
Reina gets you lots of points. But there's a bunch of 4.0-4.5 keepers who are better value. I'll stick with two of them - Schwarzer and Turnbull - and invest the money elsewhere.
PS: Anybody got any news on Zaki? Can't find anything...
Ibra -
I already have Arbeloa, I think he is a great play and should start every game (especially now Deggen has picked up another injury). It really does look like Carvalho will be fit for the weekend by the way... I got him early just in case his price went up, then I couldnt afford him.
Jay -
I tend to agree with you. Im goin to stick with my value keepers for now and see how it goes.
As for Zaki the Wigan website said he had a hamstring injury but physio room said it was a virus and he will be back this weekend. I suppose we will have to wait and see! (I think im trading him for C. Cole next week anyway, its time to cash in on Zaki in my opinion).
I have Zaki at 6.1. At that price there's no one better. I could sell for 6.6 now. But even for that it would be hard to find an equal. Unless he's out for several weeks, I'm definitely keeping him. Especially with 3 nice home games over the next 4 weeks.
i've been on this bandwagon for a while now. my starting team is
reina
carvalho bosingwa carragher agger
arteta ronaldo (c) geovanni
cisse defoe anelka
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